Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Sign up here. April 23, 2024 | |
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Ukraine's 'Best News in a Year' |
They did it—finally. Over the weekend, the US House gave Ukraine what The Economist calls its "best news in a year," passing additional US military aid and setting the stage for swift approval by the Senate and a signature from President Joe Biden.
Reports from the battlefield, and on Ukraine's national morale, have been grim as US aid has been blocked by a skeptical wing of House Republicans. As for the effect of the aid package, The Economist writes: "The consequences for Ukraine will be nearly immediate, preventing serious setbacks on the battlefield in the near term and undercutting Russia's long-term belief that its war economy … is an unstoppable juggernaut. … The Pentagon should be able to start getting [much-needed artillery] shells to Ukraine within two weeks, reckons Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment, a think-tank, and can supply enough to last for a year or so. Larger weapons systems will take much longer to ship; some still need to be ordered, let alone manufactured. The hope is that it will be enough to fend off a larger-scale Russian offensive that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's military-intelligence service, has said he expects in June." At the Financial Times, Christopher Miller and Max Seddon write: "Western and Ukrainian officials said some of the material assistance, including arms and ammunition, was already packaged in depots in Poland and elsewhere in Europe and ready to be transported."
With new confidence that artillery shells will arrive, The Economist writes elsewhere, Ukrainian soldiers won't have to ration them so carefully. That said, problems remain. "The political picture in America is, if anything, more complicated," the magazine writes. "Previous attempts to authorise fresh aid to Ukraine were sabotaged by [former President] Donald Trump, whose sway over Republican primary voters is such that few Republican lawmakers dare risk his wrath." The magazine writes that Russian President Vladtimir Putin "is gambling that, sooner or later, the West's political divisions will hobble its support for his victim. That calamity was averted this weekend. But come November, no one can be sure." To that point, Bloomberg's editorial board writes that for all Europe is doing, "the US remains the indispensable arsenal for Ukraine"—and that the West should look for ways to make support for Ukraine "sustainable" into the future. |
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The arrival of funding will be welcomed, but in a Foreign Affairs essay, Nataliya Gumenyuk outlines a broader challenge for Ukraine: maintaining social cohesion and a well-functioning economy—spending more on defense "while still preserving some level of normality, so that the country's best minds do not leave and businesses can function."
This month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed new rules governing Ukraine's draft, lowering the conscription age to 25. Experts have noted that a shortage of soldiers, not just ammunition, was weighing on Kyiv's military prospects. In the Foreign Affairs essay, Gumenyuk cites hesitance by some young Ukrainians to join the war effort, fearing their expertise would be wasted or that they would be thrown into front-line fighting without enough training.
"Ukraine's political classes are also sensitive to the country's implicit social contract," Gumenyuk writes: "the harder the state pushes and the stricter the rules that are enforced, the more chance there is that the Ukrainians will rebel and disobey. Like the Americans, the Ukrainians have a deep-seated suspicion of government intrusion in their lives. Thus, the government must find ways to encourage people to serve instead of forcing them to do so. … Closely linked to the mobilization dilemma is the question of how to maintain civilian life. The war is already estimated to have caused hundreds of billions of dollars in damage to Ukraine's economic output. Entire industrial regions and large corporations have been destroyed. Ports that played a key role in international shipping and exports are blocked. Millions of professionals have left the country, and multiple economic sectors have simply disappeared during the war." |
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Immigration is driving right-wing populism throughout the West, Europe to the US, Fareed said on Sunday's GPS. As a policy issue, it has come to epitomize the view of some voters that elites simply don't hear their concerns. As such, Fareed argued, Biden would do well to take aggressive action.
"Bill Clinton often says that the American people don't always need you to succeed, but they want to catch you trying," Fareed said. "Joe Biden needs to be caught trying to solve the immigration crisis." |
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The 'Accidental Speaker' at the Center of the Ukraine Vote |
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), a social conservative and Trump ally, advanced Ukraine funding over the objections of some isolationist voices in his own party. At The Atlantic, Elaina Plott Calabro reflects on how Johnson—who seemed to win the speakership almost by accident, after more prominent Republicans failed to secure the necessary votes—proved himself to be a capable dealmaker.
Calabro also writes of Johnson's own conversion on Ukraine: "After Russia's invasion of Ukraine two years ago, Johnson declared allegiance to the MAGA position on the war, voting 'no' on supplemental aid to Ukraine in 2022 and 2023 and 'yes' on amendments to strip the National Defense Authorization Act of any funding for the nation. 'We should not be sending another $40 billion abroad when our own border is in chaos,' he stated in May 2022. He maintained this stance for much of his speakership, refusing to put any form of assistance to a vote. … By the middle of this month—following a grim private briefing from CIA Director Bill Burns—he finally decided that action on Ukraine was worth the risk of losing his job. Last Wednesday, Johnson, addressing reporters in the Capitol's National Statuary Hall, said his turnabout had been shaped by the dire portrait shared with him by the intelligence community. 'I think that Vladimir Putin would continue to march through Europe if he were allowed,' he said."
On Johnson coming to support Ukraine, The New Yorker's Susan recently quipped: "It turns out that, eight years into the Trump takeover of the Republican Party, there are still a few surprises left." |
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